Cooperstown Notebook: Chris Sale and Others Making Tracks Toward Plaques

The trajectory of Chris Sale’s career has recently defied expectations, as the veteran left-hander has staged a remarkable comeback that bolsters his Hall of Fame candidacy. After a series of injuries and setbacks, including Tommy John surgery and multiple fractures, Sale’s late-career renaissance with the Atlanta Braves has redefined his legacy and placed him alongside the elite pitchers of his generation.

Once considered on the decline following a 2020 surgical hiatus and limited innings in the subsequent seasons, Sale’s resurgence began with a string of strong performances late in the 2023 season. This resurgence prompted the Braves to acquire him in exchange for infielder Vaughn Grissom and reorganize his contract, a move that paid dividends as Sale clinched the pitching Triple Crown and secured his first Cy Young Award. His statistics—18 wins, a 2.38 ERA, and 225 strikeouts—underscore a dominant phase at an age when many pitchers fade.

Continuing his dominance into 2024, Sale has ranked among the National League’s top pitchers, placing second in ERA and strikeout rate and third in WAR according to FanGraphs. This sustained excellence has elevated his S-JAWS rating above that of recently inducted Hall of Famer CC Sabathia, an indicator that Sale’s overall career performance now warrants serious Hall of Fame consideration. Though he may not surpass the era’s top pitchers—Verlander, Kershaw, Greinke, and Scherzer—Sale remains the foremost active or recently retired pitcher with a S-JAWS exceeding 45.

Sale’s career totals, including 157 wins and 2,745 strikeouts over 2,219 innings, augmented by 10 All-Star selections and multiple Cy Young top-fives, present a compelling case. Statistical projections estimate a 45% likelihood of reaching 200 wins and a 79% chance of surpassing 3,000 strikeouts, milestones that would further solidify his Hall credentials.

Jacob deGrom, another pitcher grappling with injuries yet a two-time Cy Young winner, illustrates the challenges of short but dominant careers. Despite career interruptions, deGrom reached personal milestones this season, including his 100th win and 2,000th strikeout, though his cumulative innings and wins remain modest compared to typical Hall of Famers. His career performance metrics position him close to legendary pitchers like Koufax, suggesting that voters will weigh his peak dominance against longevity.

Zack Wheeler’s recent return from a serious health condition has enabled him to maintain strong performance levels, with his WAR ranking within the league’s elite. While Wheeler’s career totals are not yet Hall of Fame-caliber, his consistency over the past several seasons places him prominently among his peers. Discussions about his future career length reflect an evolving outlook on his potential Hall placement.

Gerrit Cole, returning from Tommy John surgery, continues to demonstrate resilience. His ERA and strikeout rate remain near career norms, and statistical models assign him a significant probability of reaching key milestones such as 200 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. Cole’s peak seasons within his career profile enhance his standing as a strong Hall of Fame candidate among current pitchers.

Among relievers, Kenley Jansen has carved out a significant legacy with his sustained effectiveness and accumulation of 493 saves, ranking third all-time. Despite a challenging current season, his career achievements position him as one of the leading candidates for Cooperstown among closers, with comparisons drawn to Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman. Chapman's career, meanwhile, has been marked by both dominance and controversy, including a suspension and a contentious departure from the Yankees, yet recent performances and All-Star selections suggest he remains a notable figure in the Hall of Fame conversation.

Position players have also made strides this season. Paul Goldschmidt surpassed 2,000 career hits and exceeded the JAWS benchmark for first basemen, despite a recent decline against right-handed pitching and a reduced role due to emerging talent on his team. Freddie Freeman continues to impress, recently passing 2,500 hits and maintaining a strong offensive output that supports his Hall of Fame trajectory, bolstered by multiple All-Star appearances and World Series success.

Matt Olson, succeeding Freeman in Atlanta, has established himself as a consistent power hitter with strong defensive metrics. His combination of offensive production and durability, reflected in a long consecutive games streak and multiple Gold Gloves, positions him as a candidate steadily approaching Hall of Fame consideration if he sustains his current level.

Third baseman Evan Longoria, though older than some contemporaries, recently achieved the 2,000-hit milestone and rebounded offensively this season. His defensive value, underscored by multiple Gold Gloves and high runs above average, supports a Hall case that might rely heavily on his all-around contributions rather than purely offensive statistics.

The evolving standards for Hall of Fame induction, especially for pitchers in an era of reduced workloads and frequent injuries, underscore the significance of these mid-career achievements and comebacks. Chris Sale’s revitalization, in particular, exemplifies how perseverance and late-career excellence can reshape legacy perceptions and influence Hall of Fame voting in the near future, according to analysis from blogs.fangraphs.com.